Strait of Hormuz Under Growing Pressure as Tanker Attacks Disrupt Shipping

The security situation around the Strait of Hormuz has deteriorated sharply, with a surge in attacks and harassment involving commercial tankers raising fears of further disruption to one of the world's most important energy corridors.

At least 12 incidents involving tankers were recorded between September 28 and October 5, according to shipping and security sources cited by Reuters. The incidents included attacks, attempted attacks, drone overflights and aggressive communications involving Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The number represents the highest weekly level of reported tanker incidents since the U.S.-Iran war began in February.

The latest escalation has already affected maritime traffic. On October 6, only seven commodity vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the lowest daily number in more than two months, according to shipping data reported by Reuters. Traffic rose slightly to 10 vessels the following day but remained far below normal levels. Before the conflict, approximately 125 large commercial vessels passed through the waterway each day.

Tankers increasingly exposed

Commercial shipping operators are facing a difficult choice between continuing voyages through a dangerous maritime corridor and accepting major delays and higher costs by using alternative routes.

India reported that 12 crew members were injured when the Panama-flagged tanker On Peace was struck by an unidentified projectile in the Strait. Separately, a tanker off the northern coast of Qatar was reported to have been hit by multiple projectiles on October 7, further increasing concern about the safety of civilian shipping.

The attribution of individual attacks remains uncertain in some cases. Maritime authorities and international organizations continue to investigate incidents, while competing claims from countries involved in the wider conflict have complicated the picture.

Oil flows remain under pressure

The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important because it normally carries roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments. The recent reduction in traffic has therefore raised concerns about energy supplies and prices.

Reuters reported that crude oil flows through the strait had fallen to about 10.1 million barrels per day, roughly 74% of pre-war levels. Some of the lost volume has been offset by increased exports through the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea, allowing overall Middle Eastern crude exports to remain closer to pre-conflict levels.

That resilience, however, may be difficult to maintain if attacks continue. Shipping companies face higher insurance costs, security risks and logistical complications, while some vessels are avoiding the strait altogether.

Oil prices rise

The renewed attacks have been reflected in global oil markets. On October 8, Brent crude rose by more than $2 to around $102 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to nearly $90 a barrel. Markets are increasingly focused on whether the shipping disruption will develop into a prolonged supply crisis.

The impact extends beyond crude oil. Disruptions to tanker movements can also affect refined fuels, freight rates and the cost of transporting energy to major Asian and European markets.

A contested maritime corridor

The latest developments have produced competing claims about the actual level of control over the waterway. U.S. officials have argued that Iran no longer has complete control of the strait, while Iranian authorities have continued to assert their ability to restrict or monitor shipping routes.

The result is a highly uncertain environment for commercial operators. Even when the waterway remains physically navigable, the threat of attack, insurance costs and the possibility of sudden restrictions can discourage shipping companies from using it.

What happens next?

The immediate question is whether the recent attacks represent a temporary escalation or the beginning of a sustained campaign against commercial shipping.

If tanker traffic continues to decline, Gulf producers may have to rely more heavily on alternative export routes and storage facilities. That could keep oil prices elevated and place additional pressure on global fuel markets.

For now, the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical flashpoint in the wider conflict. Oil continues to move through the region, but the sharp decline in vessel traffic demonstrates how quickly security risks can disrupt one of the world's most important maritime trade routes.

The coming days will be closely watched by governments, shipping companies and energy markets for signs of either further escalation or a return toward safer commercial navigation.